Dubai housing supply: the 210,000-home forecast for 2025–2026 against about 54,000 delivered

Late in 2025 one number did the rounds: Dubai delivered about 30,000 homes in 2024, and would deliver 210,000 over 2025 and 2026. The conclusion drawn was simple — rents would collapse and prices would follow. Three quarters into 2026, the forecast can be checked against what was actually built.

Forecast against delivery

Period	Forecast	Delivered
2025	~61,000 (original schedules)	~36,000, or 59% (ValuStrat)
H1 2026	full-year forecasts of 120,000–131,000	~18,000 (CBRE)
Eighteen months	—	~54,000

ValuStrat estimates 2025 completions at about 36,000 units — 26,810 apartments and 9,382 villas and townhouses — or 59% of the original schedule. For 2026 it saw around 131,000 units scheduled; Fitch put the figure near 120,000. Yet CBRE counts roughly 18,000 completions in the first half. Even if the second half doubles the first, the 210,000 two-year figure is nowhere in sight.

Why schedules slip

Supply forecasts are built from announced completion dates, and in Dubai those routinely move by six to twelve months or more. There are not enough contractors, labour and materials to finish every project at once, so volume due in 2026 spreads into 2027 and 2028. The pipeline is still real: ValuStrat counts more than 220,000 units under construction through 2029, and a housing stock of about 856,000 units at the start of 2024 is projected to pass one million.

What is already happening to rents

Even a stretched wave presses on rents. CBRE reports average Dubai rents down 6.2% quarter on quarter and 2.6% year on year in Q2 2026, while sale prices were still 1.9% above a year earlier. Transactions fell 29% to fewer than 37,000 in the quarter. The rating agencies had flagged this: Moody's expected more than 150,000 homes over 2025–2027, Fitch around 250,000, with price falls it saw capped at about 15%. District-level rent moves are in Dubai rents turned down and the half-year picture in Dubai after the correction.

Where the risk is real

• Districts with concentrated supply. JVC holds about 10% of everything under construction, Business Bay about 6%. Landlords there will compete with dozens of new buildings for the same tenants.
• Standard studios and one-bedrooms. They dominate new towers, and that is where tenants gain choice.
• Buying to flip before handover. When a building completes alongside its neighbours, selling an assignment above the entry price gets harder.

Risk is lower where new supply is physically limited: completed villas in established communities, beachfront, and homes with strong transport links.

The 210,000 figure did not materialise, but the handover wave was postponed rather than cancelled — it now runs into 2028. Before buying where supply is dense, check what is completing next door, starting with the JVC area page.