Dubai property prices: Emaar founder expects a 5–10% correction before balance returns in 2027
At AIM Congress on 7 September 2026, Mohamed Alabbar said Dubai prices could adjust 5–10% as the 2026–27 supply wave lands, and called a 15% fall "very unrealistic". What the forecast rests on, and what Emaar's own numbers show.
When the man who built Downtown Dubai says prices may fall, the market listens. Speaking at AIM Congress in Dubai on 7 September 2026, Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar said Dubai property prices could adjust by 5–10% as a large volume of new homes is handed over in 2026 and 2027, against what he called an "extraordinary" regional situation. In the same breath he dismissed a 15% correction as "very unrealistic" and said he expects the market to reach "a nice balance" in 2027.
Three points, not one headline
The forecast is more nuanced than the number. First, the adjustment is moderate, not a crash. Second, Alabbar treats the incoming supply as healthy: it stops prices running into a bubble. Third, if the regional situation settles, he expects the market to "pick up really fast". He also noted that some developers are already offering discounts of 20–50%, while Emaar is not: "we sell good product," he said, pointing to the company's cash position and low debt. The group has around 90 000 units in production across 18 markets and in June announced the largest project in its history, an AED 200bn master plan for roughly 150 000 residents.
The balance sheet behind the confidence
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Emaar Development sales, 2025 | AED 71.1bn (+9%) |
| Emaar Development profit before tax, 2025 | AED 15.5bn / US$4.2bn (+52%) |
| Emaar Properties profit before tax, H1 2026 | AED 12.8bn (+23%) |
| Revenue backlog, 30 June 2026 | AED 164.9bn |
The wider market has cooled rather than broken. Cavendish Maxwell data put the average Dubai home price in August 2026 1.7% below a year earlier, the first annual decline since February 2021. How the first half played out is covered in Dubai after the correction.
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What it means if you are buying from abroad
- The flip is no longer a strategy. Buying at launch and selling before handover worked when the market rose 15–20% a year. In a flat market, entry price and project quality decide the outcome.
- A deep developer discount is usually priced risk. Large developers hold list prices for structural reasons, explained in why Dubai developers do not cut prices. The real negotiation happens on resale and ready stock.
- Rental yields need re-pricing. More completed homes means more competition for tenants in mass-market districts; underwrite on today's rents, not last year's.
How Emaar is structured and what to check in its contracts is set out in our Emaar developer profile and on the Emaar page.
Video on this topic
The same subject on the English channel — each clip has a written version of its own.
13:00Socio by Emaar in Dubai Hills: buying a whole floor, and skipping the 2% commission4 October 2023
11:44Dubai Hills ready apartments: the park, the schools and a 6–7% long-let yield23 September 2023
8:01Island Park at Dubai Creek Harbour: an Emaar tower that is almost finished9 August 2024
5:41Vida Residence Downtown: ready apartments beside the Burj14 June 2024
8:54Address Sky View: the twin towers with the bridge, reviewed properly31 May 2024
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