What a change of government does to a programme

Investment migration is unusually exposed to elections. It affects a small number of foreigners who do not vote, it is associated with housing costs that everybody feels, and closing it is cheap and visible. That combination makes it one of the first items on a new government's list.

What tends to change

• Thresholds, upwards, immediately and by decree where the law permits.
• Qualifying categories, with property usually removed first.
• Processing, which slows without any rule changing, as staff and priorities are reallocated.
• Tax regimes for new residents, which are closed to new entrants more often than they are abolished.
• The naturalisation period, in either direction — several countries have shortened it and several have lengthened it within a decade.

What tends not to change

• Statuses already granted. Retroactive withdrawal is legally difficult and politically expensive, and the pattern across a decade of closures has been to grandfather.
• Applications already filed, which are usually processed under the old rules, though this is sometimes contested.
• Property ownership, which is a private right rather than a policy.

The exception worth knowing

Cyprus reviewed and revoked citizenships granted under its closed programme where the original grant was found defective. That establishes that granted status is not untouchable where the grant itself is challengeable — which is an argument for a clean file rather than for avoiding programmes.

How to build for this

• Reach the most permanent status available as quickly as the rules allow. A permanent residence is harder to disturb than a renewable permit.
• Do not depend on a tax regime for the whole plan. They are closed to new entrants regularly and shortened occasionally.
• Keep the qualifying asset defensible on its own economics, so that a policy change is an inconvenience rather than a loss.
• Watch the opposition, not the government. What is being promised by the people likely to win next is the better guide to the rules you will renew under.