Dubai handover wave 2027–2028: S&P Global expects 20% more homes and a price correction in investor apartments

S&P Global expects the number of residential units in Dubai to rise by about 20% over the next two years, driven mainly by apartments. In the agency’s view, deliveries due in 2027–2028 could accelerate the price correction, especially in segments where apartments are bought by investors for resale or rental. The review was published on 7 October 2026.

What did S&P Global say about the Dubai market?

The agency links three factors: a 20% rise in supply over two years, continuing regional instability, and price corrections already under way in some segments. Together, S&P says, they are likely to bring down both transaction volumes and prices.

Its base case assumes that disruption linked to the regional war continues into next year. Some segments, the analysts note, are already correcting.

Why does the 2027–2028 handover wave hit investors in particular?

Because thousands of owners of similar apartments receive their keys at the same time. Most did not buy to live in the unit: some want to sell on completion, others to let. Hundreds of near-identical listings reach the market in the same building and district.

A buyer of a ready home then chooses among dozens of similar options and negotiates. So does a tenant. That puts pressure on both resale prices and first-year rents.

S&P does not single out the family segment here — villas, townhouses and larger apartments in established districts. The warning is about apartments bought as investments.

What do the Q3 2026 numbers already show?

According to the quarterly residential market review, Dubai recorded about 34,000 residential transactions worth AED 72.6bn in Q3 2026. Compared with Q3 2025, value fell 47% and the number of deals fell 38%.

At the same time the share of ready homes is rising. See our breakdown of the Dubai secondary market in Q3 2026: buyers increasingly choose what they can inspect and let straight away.

Measure	Value	Source
Housing stock growth over two years	about 20%, mostly apartments	S&P Global
Residential deals, Q3 2026	about 34,000	quarterly market review
Deal value, Q3 2026	AED 72.6bn	quarterly market review
Change in value vs Q3 2025	down 47%	quarterly market review
Change in number of deals	down 38%	quarterly market review

Are Dubai developers at risk?

S&P says the large rated developers — Damac, Emaar, Omniyat and Sobha Realty — have a cushion: big backlogs of sold but not yet recognised revenue, and limited payment delinquencies from buyers. That supports their ratings.

For a buyer the distinction matters. The risk of the handover wave is not that a major developer fails to finish the building, but the price at which you can sell or let the unit when hundreds of similar ones are delivered nearby. On timing risk, see what to do when a handover date slips.

What should you do if your off-plan apartment completes in 2027–2028?

The answer depends on why you bought and how much you have already paid. A general sequence:

• Count how many units complete in your district in the same year. The more similar stock, the harder the bargaining in the first months.
• Decide in advance whether to sell or let. Selling before completion, by assignment, avoids the supply peak but needs a buyer willing to pay the balance.
• Check how you will fund the final payment. Banks lend against units under construction only at a late stage and once a large part of the price is paid.
• If the goal is rental income, budget for a month or two of vacancy and a first-year rent below the advertised level.

How a sale shortly before keys works is covered in assignment six months before handover. What starts after keys — in the first year after handover.

Is it still worth buying off-plan in Dubai now?

The S&P forecast does not mean off-plan is off-limits. It means the completion date becomes part of the price. An apartment completing at the peak of the wave should cost less than a comparable unit delivered earlier or later.

The agency allows for stabilisation if geopolitical risk eases. Counting on that is a bet, not a plan. It is safer to pick a property that holds up on its own: a rare format, a strong location, a smaller building, and demand from residents rather than only investors.

Frequently asked questions

How much will Dubai housing supply grow according to S&P Global?

By about 20% over the next two years, mostly apartments. The forecast was published on 7 October 2026.

Which segments will the handover wave hit hardest?

According to S&P, investor-driven apartments bought for resale and rental. That is where 2027–2028 deliveries could accelerate the price correction.

Does the handover wave threaten Dubai’s major developers?

S&P thinks not: Damac, Emaar, Omniyat and Sobha Realty have large backlogs and few buyer payment delinquencies.

What should an owner with a 2027 handover do?

Decide early whether to sell before keys or let, assess competing supply in the district, and confirm how the final payment will be funded.

Want to know how the 2027–2028 handover wave affects your unit? Start with off-plan mortgages in Dubai, and message us about your specific apartment.