Dubai property price index, September 2026 (ValuStrat): prices flatten as 80% of villa communities hold steady

ValuStrat's Dubai residential price index for September 2026 stood at 218.6 points against 218.8 in August, a 0.1% monthly fall. Prices are 4.5% lower than a year ago and 10.3% below February. The key finding: 80% of villa and 77% of apartment communities recorded no change at all.

What did the September ValuStrat index show?

The decline has nearly stopped. The index fell 0.2% in August and 0.1% in September. The weighted average home value was AED 3.354 million, or AED 1,511 per sq ft, against AED 1,513 a month earlier.

• Villas: an average of AED 12.957 million, AED 2,033 per sq ft, down 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year;
• Apartments: an average of AED 1.781 million, AED 1,392 per sq ft, down 0.1% on the month and 6.4% on the year.

We covered the August report, when villas posted their first annual fall since 2021, in our August ValuStrat review.

Why are analysts talking about a plateau?

Because the share of communities with flat prices jumped. In August 73% of villa and 61% of apartment communities saw no movement; in September it was 80% and 77%. The correction is spreading thinner and fading rather than accelerating.

For buyers that changes the game: early in the year sellers were cutting every month, now prices are holding. The case for waiting on a further market-wide drop is weaker than it was in spring.

How far have villa prices risen since 2021?

The villa index is at 291.8 points on a January 2021 base of 100, so villas cost almost three times what they did at the start of 2021. The apartment index is at 168.1. ValuStrat estimates that older villa communities are 186% above post-pandemic levels and 75% above the 2014 peak.

Apartments had a milder cycle: 68% above the post-pandemic low and still about 9% below the 2014 peak.

Where are villa prices rising and where are they falling?

The villa market has split. The annual leader is Jumeirah Islands, up 9.4%.

Annual gain	%	Annual fall	%
Jumeirah Islands	+9.4	Mudon	−9.2
Emirates Hills	+5.9	Palm Jumeirah (villas)	−8.5
The Villa	+3.7	Dubai Hills Estate	−8.3
Reem	+2.6	Victory Heights	−8.1
The Meadows	+2.5	Arabian Ranches	−7.1

Among apartments the affordable districts are rising: Dubai Sports City +3.1%, Al Quoz Fourth +2.9%, Dubai Silicon Oasis +2.7%. The expensive addresses are falling hardest: Burj Khalifa −21.7%, JBR −18.3%, Palm Jumeirah apartments −9.8%, Dubai Marina −8.4%.

How many deals closed in September?

ValuStrat counted 9,791 residential deals: 6,884 off-plan registrations (70.3%) and 2,907 ready homes. Off-plan fell 14.1% on the month and 51.3% on the year; ready sales fell 4.3% and 23.5%.

• Off-plan: Majan 7.5%, Azizi Venice 6.6%, JVC 6.3%, Jebel Ali Downtown 6.1%, City of Arabia 5%;
• Ready: JVC 11.6%, Business Bay 6.6%, Dubai Marina 3.9%, Downtown 3.8%, International City 3.4%.

The prime end kept trading: 15 ready-home deals above AED 30 million. ValuStrat puts a typical Palm Jumeirah villa at about AED 36.5 million, or AED 7,300 per sq ft.

Frequently asked questions

Are Dubai property prices falling in September 2026?

Barely: down 0.1% on the month on the ValuStrat index, and 4.5% lower than a year earlier.

Which villa communities gained over the year?

Jumeirah Islands (+9.4%), Emirates Hills (+5.9%), The Villa (+3.7%), Reem (+2.6%) and The Meadows (+2.5%).

What share of sales is off-plan?

70.3% — 6,884 registrations out of 9,791 in September 2026.

What these numbers mean ahead of the 2027–2028 handover wave is covered in our review of the S&P Global forecast.