Dubai off-plan in Q3 2025: 43 500 transactions and AED 113.5bn

The Dubai primary market closed the third quarter of 2025 at record levels on all three key metrics.

• 43 500 transactions — up 24% year on year.
• AED 1 765 per square foot average price — up 11%, roughly $5 150 per square metre.
• AED 113.5bn of total sales — up 18%, about $30.9bn.

What was holding it up

The support was fundamental rather than speculative: sustained capital inflow, rental yields high relative to global markets, and the dirham's hard peg to the dollar removing currency risk for an international buyer. Policy remained investor-facing, and demand from businesses and residents continued to grow with the emirate's population.

The detail worth noticing

Prices rose 11% while transaction count rose 24%. The market was growing outward — through new buyers — rather than through the repricing of existing supply.

That is the healthier of the two configurations. A market where prices climb faster than volumes is being driven by a shrinking pool of buyers paying more; one where volumes outpace prices is being driven by more people entering. The second is more durable, and it is what this quarter shows.

Reading it a year later

Set against 2026 — home sales in August down 35.2% year on year — the third quarter of 2025 reads as the peak of the cycle rather than a plateau. That does not invalidate the numbers; it locates them.

The useful lesson is about what a record quarter is worth as a forecast: very little on its own. What made it informative was the ratio between volume growth and price growth, and that ratio is worth recomputing every quarter rather than reading the headline totals.